The market, by the numbers
Statistics
Ninety-eight years of S&P 500 history and fourteen years of tech IPOs, drawn so you can see the ups, the falls and the climbs back.
Interest rates since 1954
Where are US rates now, against seventy years of history?
US interest rates, monthly average, %
Technical
The effective Fed funds rate averaged 3.75% in Sep 2026, against a 4.59% average since 1954; it has been higher than today in 56% of months since then.
Plain English
Rates near today's level are ordinary by history. The near-zero years after 2008 and in 2020 were the unusual part.
Source: Effective federal funds rate and 10-year Treasury constant maturity, monthly averages: Federal Reserve H.15, via DBnomics. Recessions: NBER. Data to Sep 2026. Refreshed each weekday after the US and SGX closes.
The Fed funds rate is what banks charge each other overnight and what the Federal Reserve steers. The 10-year Treasury yield is set by the bond market. Shaded months are US recessions as dated by the NBER.
Past returns don't predict future returns. Figures are for US markets; a Singapore investor also carries the US dollar's moves against the Singapore dollar. For education only. Not financial advice.