The market, by the numbers

Statistics

Ninety-eight years of S&P 500 history and fourteen years of tech IPOs, drawn so you can see the ups, the falls and the climbs back.

Best and worst months

Is there anything to Sell in May, September or the election cycle?

RBL | US | 07Updated 31 Oct, 6:32 am SGT

Best month on averageNov+1.86%, up in 70% of years

Weakest monthSep−0.62%, up in 44% of years

Nov to Apr vs May to Oct+6.8% vs +2.3%Sum of the monthly averages, the Sell in May split

Best year of the cyclePre-election+20.8% a year on average since 1950

Average S&P 500 return by month, 1950 to last month

Under each month: share of years it ended up

+1.1%

Jan61% up

0.0%

Feb53% up

+1.0%

Mar64% up

+1.5%

Apr70% up

+0.4%

May62% up

+0.2%

Jun55% up

+1.3%

Jul60% up

+0.1%

Aug56% up

−0.6%

Sep44% up

+0.9%

Oct59% up

+1.9%

Nov70% up

+1.4%

Dec72% up

Average return by year of the US election cycle, with dividends

Years

+11.5%

Post-election63% up · fall inside −13% · 19 years

+8.3%

Midterm63% up · fall inside −18% · 19 years

+20.8%

Pre-election100% up · fall inside −11% · 19 years

+11.4%

Election89% up · fall inside −13% · 19 years

Technical

Since 1950, 10 of 12 calendar months have averaged a gain. The weakest, September, averaged −0.62% and still ended higher in 44% of years.

Plain English

Seasonal patterns are real on average but small, and they miss often. No month has been reliably bad enough to sit out.

Source: S&P 500 month-end closes (price only), January 1950 to the last full month: Yahoo Finance. Election-cycle returns: Annual returns with dividends: Aswath Damodaran, NYU Stern. Intra-year declines: S&P 500 daily closes, Yahoo Finance. Data to 30 Oct 2026. Refreshed each weekday after the US and SGX closes.

Monthly figures are price changes without dividends; the election-cycle figures include dividends. Past returns don't predict future returns.

Past returns don't predict future returns. Figures are for US markets; a Singapore investor also carries the US dollar's moves against the Singapore dollar. For education only. Not financial advice.