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Statistics

Ninety-eight years of S&P 500 history and fourteen years of tech IPOs, drawn so you can see the ups, the falls and the climbs back.

AI boom vs dot-com boom

Is the AI rally running ahead of, or behind, the dot-com bubble?

RBL | US | 04Updated
Compare
Scale
AI boom, Nasdaq-100 so far+146%3.9 years in, to 30 Oct 2026
Dot-com, Nasdaq-100 at the same point+313%11 Jul 1999
Dot-com at its peak+688%4.6 years in, 19 Mar 2000
Dot-com, peak to low−83%Low on 29 Sep 2002

Growth of 100, weeks since each boom began

Dot-com, Nasdaq-100, from 13 Aug 1995 AI boom, Nasdaq-100, from 4 Dec 2022
200400600800StartYear 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5Year 6Year 7Peak 19 Mar 2000: +688%

Technical

3.9 years after ChatGPT's launch the Nasdaq-100 is +146%. At the same point after the Netscape IPO it was +313%, on its way to a +688% peak in 19 Mar 2000 and then a −83% fall.

Plain English

So far this rally has climbed more slowly than the dot-com one did. The chart can't say which part of the dot-com path comes next, only how the two compare to date.

Source: Nasdaq-100 (^NDX, price only) and Cisco and Nvidia (adjusted for splits and dividends) weekly closes: Yahoo Finance. Data to 30 Oct 2026. Refreshed each weekday after the US and SGX closes.

Start dates: the Netscape IPO on 9 Aug 1995 and ChatGPT's launch on 30 Nov 2022, each rebased to 100 on the first weekly close. The dot-com line runs to the end of 2002. Past returns don't predict future returns.

Past returns don't predict future returns. Figures are for US markets; a Singapore investor also carries the US dollar's moves against the Singapore dollar. For education only. Not financial advice.