The market, by the numbers

Statistics

Ninety-eight years of S&P 500 history and fourteen years of tech IPOs, drawn so you can see the ups, the falls and the climbs back.

Falls inside the year

How far does the market drop during a year, even in the years it ends up?

RBL | US | 02Updated 31 Oct, 6:32 am SGT

Years

Election cycle

Average fall inside the year−14.1%Median −10.1%, across 46 years

Average return for the year+13.4%With dividends

Fell 10% or more, still ended up16 of 24Years with a 10%+ fall inside them

Deepest fall−48.0%2008, which ended −36.5%

S&P 500 return for the year and its largest fall inside it, 1980 to 2026

Year's return, up Year's return, down Largest fall inside the year

See every year as a table

Year	Election cycle	Return, with dividends	Largest fall inside the year
2026 so far	Midterm	+11.77% ▲	−9.1%
2025	Post-election	+17.78% ▲	−18.9%
2024	Election	+24.88% ▲	−8.5%
2023	Pre-election	+26.06% ▲	−10.3%
2022	Midterm	−18.04% ▼	−25.4%
2021	Post-election	+28.47% ▲	−5.2%
2020	Election	+18.02% ▲	−33.9%
2019	Pre-election	+31.21% ▲	−6.8%
2018	Midterm	−4.23% ▼	−19.8%
2017	Post-election	+21.61% ▲	−2.8%
2016	Election	+11.77% ▲	−9.3%
2015	Pre-election	+1.38% ▲	−12.3%
2014	Midterm	+13.52% ▲	−7.4%
2013	Post-election	+32.15% ▲	−5.8%
2012	Election	+15.89% ▲	−9.9%
2011	Pre-election	+2.10% ▲	−19.4%
2010	Midterm	+14.82% ▲	−16.0%
2009	Post-election	+25.94% ▲	−27.6%
2008	Election	−36.55% ▼	−48.0%
2007	Pre-election	+5.48% ▲	−10.1%
2006	Midterm	+15.61% ▲	−7.7%
2005	Post-election	+4.83% ▲	−7.2%
2004	Election	+10.74% ▲	−8.2%
2003	Pre-election	+28.36% ▲	−14.1%
2002	Midterm	−21.97% ▼	−33.8%
2001	Post-election	−11.85% ▼	−29.7%
2000	Election	−9.03% ▼	−17.2%
1999	Pre-election	+20.89% ▲	−12.1%
1998	Midterm	+28.34% ▲	−19.3%
1997	Post-election	+33.10% ▲	−10.8%
1996	Election	+22.68% ▲	−7.6%
1995	Pre-election	+37.20% ▲	−2.5%
1994	Midterm	+1.33% ▲	−8.9%
1993	Post-election	+9.97% ▲	−5.0%
1992	Election	+7.49% ▲	−6.2%
1991	Pre-election	+30.23% ▲	−5.6%
1990	Midterm	−3.06% ▼	−19.9%
1989	Post-election	+31.48% ▲	−7.6%
1988	Election	+16.54% ▲	−7.6%
1987	Pre-election	+5.81% ▲	−33.5%
1986	Midterm	+18.49% ▲	−9.4%
1985	Post-election	+31.24% ▲	−7.7%
1984	Election	+6.15% ▲	−12.7%
1983	Pre-election	+22.34% ▲	−6.9%
1982	Midterm	+20.42% ▲	−16.6%
1981	Post-election	−4.70% ▼	−18.4%
1980	Election	+31.74% ▲	−17.1%

Technical

Since 1980 the S&P 500's average fall from a high to a low inside a calendar year was −14.1%, yet 38 of 46 years ended higher. Since 1950, midterm years averaged a −17.5% fall inside the year, against −12.4% for the other three years of the cycle.

Plain English

A double-digit drop somewhere in the year is normal, not a sign the year is lost. Midterm years have tended to fall furthest.

Source: Annual returns with dividends: Aswath Damodaran, NYU Stern. Intra-year declines: S&P 500 daily closes, Yahoo Finance. Data to 30 Oct 2026. Refreshed each weekday after the US and SGX closes.

The fall inside each year is the largest drop from a high to a later low between 1 January and 31 December, on daily closes without dividends. Returns include dividends. Past returns don't predict future returns.

Past returns don't predict future returns. Figures are for US markets; a Singapore investor also carries the US dollar's moves against the Singapore dollar. For education only. Not financial advice.